This is an interesting topic that I also posted in Otto's B-MOD class. I have always felt that the concept of sport/competition reveals a lot about one's character. In sport, you witness one's behavior and oftentimes their coinciding motivation and emotion. My father was a HS football coach for as long as I can remember. I grew up watching his athletes practice and play and the way he treated each individual. That also has led to my interest in sport psychology. From athletic performance, confidence, etc., there are many behaviors that take place on the field or on the court that can be modified based on certain other behaviors and actions.
In the article below on economy of sports, it talks about a coach's decisions within the game of football. Now one would think the coach's decision most times would maximize his/her team's chance to win. However, as the article shows, this often isn't the case as their behavior/decisions depart from what gives them statistically their greatest chance to win. For instance, while most coach's choose to punt the ball on fourth down, the numbers show coach's should actually go for it in a majority of situations. It also talks about the numbers concerning teams' behaviors and approaches on other occasions such as first down, second down, etc. as well as field position and decisions on field goals/touchdowns. Now, what is it that motivates coach's to either follow the norm or break off into their own style or pattern of play? What influences their behavior; what aspects of emotion?
I would suggest taking a look at the link below. If it doesn't work type "David Romer do firms maximize" into google and it should be one of the first links. While the article is pretty long, scroll down to the discussion part of his paper or certain parts that may be of interest to you.
http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf
Why are coach's so conservative or why do some of these behaviors occurs when statistically they aren't maximizing their chances to win?
It is certainly interesting to think of points being gained and lost throughout the game (regardless of them showing up on the scoreboard) as a result of different situations a team may find itself in. A kickoff actually being -0.6 points was the main one that caught my attention. This makes a field goal actually equal 2.4 points and a touchdown equal to 6.4 (assuming the extra point is made). Its not clear from the link whether this article was published, but if his numbers are correct, its amazing to think that 3rd down and 4th down plays are close to indistinguishable from one another.
However, there could be a reason why coaches decide not to go for it that is related to a basic aspect of motivation. When considering going for it on 4th down the aroused motive of anxiety is likely to be much higher due to the consequences of not succeeding. As a result, the coach will avoid this consequence and reduce the anxiety it was providing by punting the ball or kicking the field goal. On 3rd down, there is likely not as much anxiety, so it could be drowned out by an achievement/success motive which leads to calling a play that is likely to be more successful. Not to mention, decisions to convert a 4th down that do not go favorably present poorly in terms of the coach's general decision making ability (especially if he fails to convert a lot of them) and can have implications for his job, which can increase anxiety as well.
I have to admit that despite the information presented in this article it is still hard for me to believe that statistical analysis of situations that have occurred can be useful for future decisions when it seems that there is a dynamic involved that includes many more variables than the author uses in his analysis [I'm thinking of coaching strategy, quarterback skill level vs. running back skill level, offense skill level vs. defense skill level (within and between teams), home vs. away, injuries, etc.]. Still, this was a really interesting read and I will probably never watch a game the same way again.
I agree with you in your analysis of 4th down situations and the risk factors involved, especially for coaches. These risk factors, I believe, are the motivational aspects, like you said, which arise in punting situations. The reason most coaches decide to punt are the risks outweight the rewards. While statistically it may be the correct decision, public derision is soon to follow if you are not successful.
Whether in sports or the real world, following the norm is a trend of our society. When someone does not follow the norm, there are often consequences. Bill Belichick was criticized whole-heartedly by the media to go for it on fourth down inside his own 30-yardline late in the game, even though it later came out that statistically he made the right decision. While I don't believe it's possible to fully guarantee certain stats or trends found through research (as I agree there are many external variables not taken/impossible to completely take into account), I do take them seriously. Still, as you pointed out, a coach's job safety these days, whether high school, college, or NFL, is unfortunately taken upon a seemingly day-to-day, game-to-game basis. Extreme decisions such as going for it on fourth down or attempting a touchdown instead of a field goal, are all behaviors that will be analyzed by head officials and those in the media who can see "20-20."
The anxiety is almost too much to handle as it has been the case several times in the past few years where coaches step-down or take a leave of absence because of health concerns. It just goes to show you the emotional toll the pressure coaching can put on an individual. Still, there have been coaches out there who have followed a statistical format such as the one explained in the economy of sports article. In fact, there was one coach this past year who never punted and took his team to the state chamionship. Definitely interesting stuff...In fact, this article and even the coach interviewed mentions the David Romer article I posted regarding the economics of sports. I would definitely recommend reading it as it shows true application within the sporting world:
http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888